Um estudo empírico sobre a variação do emprego formal e do salário médio no Estado do Ceará após o Decreto nº 31.270/2013

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to verify if the implementation of ICMS tax substitution implemented by the State of Ceará through decree 31.270 / 2013 caused an impact on the number of workers' bonds or the average salary paid in the economic sectors affected. The period studied is from 2006 to 2015 and the data used are those made available by the Ministry of Labor and Employment through RAIS. To reach the objective, a model of differences in differences and one of fixed effects was estimated. As a result, there was no statistically significant change in the number of ties or the average salary resulting from the new ICMS collection system. However, it was found that an increase in the proportion of companies that opted for SIMPLES positively affects the number of employment bonds and negatively the average salary and that the increase in the proportion of companies located in Fortaleza contributes to the decrease in the number of ties and positively in value of the average salary.