Investimento em infraestrutura e crescimento econômico: uma revisão de literatura

Abstract

This paper is a literature review of the analysis of relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth. A number of articles have emerged in recent decades, investigating the stock of public capital and changes in aggregate output, using a variety of empirical data and methodologies, with broadly contrasting results. According to the economic literature, a greater capital of infrastructure generates an increase of the product of the economy. However, the evidence from the analysis of individual infrastructure projects says the opposite. Forecast errors, such as the overvaluation of benefits and the underestimation of costs overruns, make public investments in infrastructure lose economic value. Factors such as the flexibility of the exchange rate regime, the degree of trade openness and the level of sovereign debt affect the fiscal multiplier of public spending can make the impact of public investment on infrastructure economically null, or even negative. Infrastructure investments financed by rising public debt lead to financial fragility and destabilization of the economy. Thus, a growth program focused on infrastructure investment, financed by debt, is not a sustainable development strategy for emerging countries.