Variação cambial do real em relação ao dólar: causas, consequências e alternativas de previsão

Abstract

The present study aims to argue the predictability of the variation of the exchange rate based on past behavior. In order to do that, the path of the exchange rate in Brazil was analyzed, as well as the causes and consequences of variation of the real against the U.S. dollar since the Real Plan until 2013. The model of technical statistical analysis, which is an alternative dollar forecasting mechanism to the fundamental approach, that uses econometric method, was presented and tested. The technical statistical analysis has been widely used by investors in the stock market, as it allows prediction of the future value of the dollar based on the conditions of indicators at the present time. Using trend followers calculated by the moving average price of the dollar, Relative Strength Index and standard deviation bands; charts indicate trends of price decline of the dollar in view of the trend, evidenced primarily by the Relative Strength Index generated and the Bollinger Bands, that also suggests an appreciation of the real until it reaches the arithmetic mobile average.